Green Deal Barometer 2024

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Green Deal Barometer 2024

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Business and biodiversity basics Integrating biodiversity into a business context Nature conservation and restoration

The fourth edition of the European Green Deal Barometer, the annual survey of the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP), which collects the opinions of sustainability experts on the progress of the implementation of the European Green Deal, presents its conclusions in this document.

This extensive survey of more than 300 experts reveals that 67% of respondents believe that the upcoming European elections will have a negative impact on the implementation of the European Green Deal (PVE). According to respondents, the PVE could lose its central position in EU politics, as its programme is expected to be weakened or more constrained. However, respondents recognize their resilience even in the face of political and long-term changes; 55% of experts are confident that the European institutions will turn the Green Deal objectives into approved legislation, including the climate neutrality objective. When implemented, almost all experts living outside the EU also recognise positive impacts on a global scale.

Sustainability experts believe that the European Commission's top priority after the 2024 elections should be to ensure a socially just transition. This approach can help improve the future resilience of the Green Deal. Just over half of the experts in the five case studies (France, Czechia, Sweden, Spain and Poland) believe that ensuring a just transition will increase support for the Green Deal in their countries.

The survey focuses on a number of key policy issues that assess different policy areas within the European Green Deal agenda and its implementation.

Climate change mitigation and the path to climate neutrality: Experts are divided on whether the target set for 2040 is enough for the EU to reach the Paris Agreement targets, with almost half (47%) thinking it is and a slightly lower proportion (43%) thinking it is not enough.

Protecting and restoring ecosystems and biodiversity: More than two-thirds of experts believe that the Nature Restoration Act will have a moderate to full impact (67%) on biodiversity restoration in the European Union.

Ensuring a socially just transition: Almost half (45%) of just transition experts believe that little progress has been made towards mainstreaming this principle since 2019.

Fair and sustainable food and agricultural system: Three-quarters (75%) of those with expertise in issues related to a sustainable food and agriculture system believe that little progress has been made since 2019. Less than one in 10 (7%) believe progress has been good.

Increasing financial support to farmers for the transition to sustainable agricultural practices (59%) is seen by experts as one of the most necessary measures to achieve a more environmentally and climate-friendly EU agricultural policy.

Decarbonised, affordable and secure energy supply: More than a third (34%) believe that quite a bit of progress has been made, making this the only policy area where experts have a more positive than negative view of the progress made. However, only 1 in 10 (10%) experts believe that the current version of the Electricity Market Reform protects citizens from future energy crises or price hikes largely/completely.

The external impact of the European Green Deal: 69% of experts believe that the overall external impact of the European Green Deal is positive. 63% of experts believe that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will help reduce carbon emissions from products entering the EU to a moderate/large degree.

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