Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050


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Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

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Business and biodiversity basics Identifying and measuring impacts and dependencies Integrating biodiversity into a business context

Based on a broad intercomparison of models, the authors of this publication assess trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land use and climate change.

During the 20th century, biodiversity declined worldwide by between 2% and 11%, according to estimates of a range of indicators. Ecosystem services of provision multiplied several times and those of regulation decreased moderately. Looking ahead, sustainability policies can halt biodiversity loss caused by land-use change and demand for provisioning services, while reducing or reversing the decline of regulatory services. However, the negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change seem destined to increase, especially in higher emissions scenarios.

The assessment identifies the uncertainties that still persist in the models, but also strongly shows that renewed political efforts are needed to meet the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

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